Bitcoin (BTC) price has risen nearly 4.75% to around $28,250 in the past 24 hours, including the biggest daily jump since Aug. 29.
BTC pops amid U.S. shutdown aversion, ETF launch hopes
Bitcoin started rallying hours after the United States Congress pushed back the possibility of a shutdown to mid-November. As a result, BTC’s price saw its biggest green candle since late August.
Moreover, averting a government shutdown means the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) can potentially meet its Bitcoin ETF deadlines in the coming months.
Last week, the SEC delayed its decision on several Bitcoin ETF applications, including BlackRock’s. The Bitcoin market could attract $600 billion in capital following a spot Bitcoin ETF launch, one report estimates.
Bitcoin “Uptober” narrative kicks in
It is no coincidence that the latest Bitcoin price rally started on the first day of the cryptocurrency’s most bullish months.
October is historically one of Bitcoin’s best months and is often called “Uptober.“ BTC’s price has risen by an average of 20.82% in October since 2012, with 2014 and 2018 being the only exceptions.
Nearly $43 million worth of shorts liquidated
In addition, Bitcoin price gains appear on the heels of massive short liquidations in the derivatives market.
The past 24 hours have seen short liquidations worth nearly $43 million. In comparison, only about $6 million worth of long positions have been liquidated. A similar liquidation event occurred on Sept. 12–13 and preceded a 5.5% rally — from around $25,830 to over $27,200 — by Sept. 19.
Short sellers liquidated positions by buying the underlying asset. Therefore, the combination of new buyers and short liquidations likely boosted the BTC/USD pair even further.
Bitcoin price analysis
From a technical standpoint, the current BTC price rally risks exhaustion in the short term.
Notably, BTC’s daily relative strength index (RSI) may hit or close above 70 this week — an “overbought” area indicating an impending period of correction or consolidation afterward.
In addition, Bitcoin tests its 0.5 Fib line near $28,330 as resistance. This level served as support in July and August, which raises its potential of inducing a pullback move toward the 0.382 Fib line near $27,550 in October.
Related: BTC price hits ‘Uptober’ up 5% — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Conversely, Bitcoin’s chances of reaching $30,000 are improving, particularly if BTC retains strength at these levels with a clear breakout above the 0.5 Fib line.
From a weekly timeframe perspective, BTC’s price is also eyeing the psychological level of $30,000. That is valid as long as it holds strong above its long-term support, the 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near $25,750.
Meanwhile, the bears will attempt to sink the price below the 200-week EMA. In this case, the next key level to defend for the bulls will be the multi-year ascending trendline support near $23,500.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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